Clippers vs Nugget Game 4; Where is the Value?

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Game 4 between the Los Angeles Clippers and the Denver Nuggets tips off tonight at 6:00 PM PST. The Clippers are currently -8 and the total sits at 220.5 for tonight matchup. Los Angeles does have a two games to one series lead over the Nuggets and could put the Nuggets season in jeopardy with another win tonight.

After a blowout loss in Game 1 of the series, Denver came to play and tied the series up at a game a piece. They could not pull off back to back wins against the Clippers but did show they can hang around as they brought the last playoff series to seven games as well.

The Nuggets are going to want to do that again and will need to win the next two out of three to do so. Los Angeles has not been able to play as dominantly as they would have liked this series, but could turn the table tonight in Game 4.

How the Clippers Win

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The Clippers live and die by the performance of Kwahi Leonard. In Game 1 of the series, Leonard has 29 points in their blowout win. The Clippers loss came when Leonard had only 13 points off 4/18 shooting, which will not cut it. He did find his stroke again and came away with 23 points in their Game 3 win.

Paul George has played much better this series and is averaging 24.3 points per game this series. As long as Leonard is not irrelevant, George has played a huge role in the series thus far.

As a team, the Clippers will need to limit turnovers against the Nuggets as they have had two games with 17 turnovers. They have also outrebounded Denver in every game, which is huge going up against Jokic in the post and controlling possession.

How the Nuggets Win

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The Nuggets have been playing tough in the NBA bubble and are proving they can hang with the Clippers. In Game 3, Denver went cold in the fourth quarter, which is why they lost after being up to four in the final part of the game.

The Nuggets will need Jerami Grant and Jamal Murray to shoot better as the two combined for 25 points on 10/31 shooting. While only losing by six last games, this should show how the Nuggets can very well steal another win this series.

If the two play a better offensive game, then they most likely take Game 3 and are up two games to one entering tonight’s matchup. Also, if Jokic has the mismatch down low, then Denver will exploit it every time. If Zubac gets into foul trouble, then Denver can feed Jokic as no one of the Clippers can guard him.

Pick: Clippers -8

Los Angeles has not played well in the last two games, and I think this is where it all changes. Denver is becoming the trendy underdog, which is a good spot to take the favorite. The Clippers will want to show the league that they are still the favorite to win the NBA title tonight.

The way the Lakers and Rockets series is going, Los Angeles will not want to have to take on the Lakers after playing the Nuggets for seven games. They should be able to get out in front early and hole their lead.

Denver has been hanging around the last few games, but it feels like Los Angeles knows what could happen if Denver is in it in the fourth quarter. To avoid that, they will have to do the ‘ol blow them out trick to head into Game 5.