The Chargers themselves invested in Herbert by adding a ton of talent to his offensive line, which was one of the worst in the league last year. Hopefully, this can take Herbert from great to elite. There are also the coaching changes that may be influencing this upswing in odds for the Chargers.
Los Angeles Chargers Super Bowl Odds
|Los Angeles Chargers Super Bowl||+3,300|
|Los Angeles Chargers AFC Championship||+1,600|
|Los Angeles Chargers AFC West Championship||+450|
Chargers Offseason Changes
The first large change with the Chargers was getting rid of Anthony Lynn. This should automatically bump up the win total for the Chargers by 2 or 3 wins. Brandon Staley is coming over from the Rams, where he was ridiculously successful, boasting the best defense in the league during 2020. While Staley had talent, he was able to turn fringe defensive backs like Troy Hill into superstars.
The offensive coordinator, Joe Lombardi, is coming over from the Saints, where he has worked as the Quarterbacks coach for five years. He also worked under Payton before that time for six years. His only previous OC experience was with the 2014 and 2015 Lions, where he was decent but not great. This team will be ridiculously talented. Lombardi should be able to instill a mixture of his own beliefs that we saw when he was OC for Stafford and Sean Payton’s beliefs that he inherited during his time with the Saints.
The next biggest change is the offensive line. The team added Corey Linsley, who may just be the best center in the league. The Chargers also added another elite Packers linemen in Bryan Bulaga. These were two massive instant upgrades for Justin Herbert. The next two additions were Oday Aboushi and Matt Feiler, two guys with a bit of flexibility on the line that may fill out the IOL.
The Chargers’ offense will focus on Justin Herbert and his arm, but if the team can get a full season out of Austin Ekeler, the Chargers could have some outstanding offensive balance. The new offensive line will play a huge role in the success of both of these players. When it comes to targets, the team added Jared Cook at tight end to replace Hunter Henry. However, the centerpieces of the receiving game will be Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.
I fully expect this offense to be in the top half of DVOA. However, that expectation might be too low, and this team is capable of being top-5 due to the improved line and Justin Herbert’s fantastic arm. As always, things will come down to health and coaching.
The Chargers defense has talent, but it simply cannot get healthy. Brandon Staley will have his work cut out for him, and he will need to address all levels of defense. However, I think that Staley was the perfect candidate to get the most out of the secondary with limited talent.
The two-star players are going to be Derwin James and Joey Bosa. The Chargers really need both of these players to be healthy for the majority of the season to make a playoff. If these guys are not healthy, then you have no chance at a Super Bowl run this year. Joey Bosa will be this team’s primary way of getting pressure on the quarterback. Meanwhile, Derwin James is a versatile weapon in the defense that can really do it all. That kind of playmaking ability is something the Chargers really cannot live without.
While I think that the Chargers are going to be a great team this year, I do not fully believe that they take the step to becoming Super Bowl contenders. While I would like this wager at +5,000 or +6,000 aligned with the Minnesota Vikings and Washington Football Team, the current odds are just too short to justify a bet.
The Chargers are good, but I think that we are one year out from this being a great bet. If the Chargers hit on some rookie picks and develop their skills, then they will be a significant threat in 2022. I just do not think that they can get enough production out of the rookies and team this year.