The San Diego Padres are one of the favorites for the World Series. This is the first time in many years that a Padres team is this highly touted. A combination of some fantastic rookie performances, major free agency moves, and incredible trades have led oddsmakers to put the Padres third in line for the World Series title odds.
The Padres will have stiff competition as the World Series Champions and 2021 favorites, the Los Angeles Dodgers, are in the same division. With no expanded playoffs, this means that one of these two super-teams will have to play a one-game playoff in the Wild Card round if they both make it to the post-season. This is probably the reason that the Dodgers and Padres are not 1-2 on the odds list at the moment.
San Deigo Padres World Series Odds
|San Deigo Padres World Series||+800|
|San Deigo Padres National League||+390|
|San Deigo Padres National League West||+200|
During the offseason prior to the 2021 season, the Padres made some league-changing moves. The first was to acquire Yu Darvish, who finished 2020 with a 2.01 ERA, to lead the rotation. This adds to an already young and deep rotation that the team has despite Mike Clevinger being out for the season.
Then, the Padres went out and got another CY Young talent in Blake Snell. The lefty out of Tampa Bay did not cost much for Padres, which makes the deal even more insane.
The next move for the padres was to sign Korean-star Ha-Seong Kim. The infielder destroyed the KBO last season, and the Padres can have Kim as a second baseman or as a depth piece for the lineup.
If you thought it was over, then you are wrong. The Padres then gave the rookie sensation Fernando Tatis one of the largest contracts in MLB history. The contract is worth $340 million over 14-years. The contract starts out pretty cheap and gradually gets up to $30+ million a year.
With Tatis, Machado, Hosmer, and Tommy Pham leading the middle of the lineup, it is easy to see why the Padres are favorites. While this lineup is not as crazy as the Dodgers or Yankees, it is still one of the most powerful in the majors. It also has a great balance of left and right-handed talent. Not to mention the gluttonous amount of young talent that is only going to get better on the bench and in the minors with the likes of Kim and Mateo.
The scary part is that the Padres are still waiting for guys like Luis Campusano and Jorge Ona to make an impression at MLB-level. There are many young studs who can make this lineup even scarier.
The pitching is the reason that the Padres currently sit as the third most likely team to win the World Series, according to DraftKings. The starting pitching rotation is projected to be Darvish, Snell, Musgrove, Lament, and Paddack. Besides Darvish, all of these pitchers are under 29 and only getting better.
According to Fangraphs, none of these pitchers are projected to have over a 3.9 ERA, which would be crazy to see 1-5. Again, the only team to even come close to matching the Padres here are the Dodgers. Unfortunately, the Dodgers play in the same division.
The bullpen is also a solid group for the Padres, although the team has been rumored to be in the market to improve here. Drew Pomeranz is the top-rated arm in the rotation. If the Padres can get an elite arm and another solid set up man, then I believe they can compete and win the NL West.
When looking at this Padres team in a vacuum, it is hard to see how the team is not favorites to win the entire World Series. However, two other teams in the MLB happen to be absolutely stacked as well in the Yankees and Dodgers.
Furthermore, unluckily for the Padres, they are in the same division with one of the most talented rosters of the past 40+ years in the 2021 Dodgers. Due to this reason, the +850 odds go from looking great to very scary.
Therefore, it’s hard to recommend taking the Padres for the World Series. The odds for the NL West and NL Title are slightly more likable, but the Dodgers remain as the main deterrent. The worst fear when taking the Pennant or World Series odds on the Padres is that dreaded one-game playoff where anything can happen and in no way determines who really is the better team. It is as random as baseball gets.
The NL West is quickly turning into the scariest division in baseball, with both the Padres and Dodgers absolutely stocked in the majors and minors. Then, the San Francisco Giants are slowly developing a top-5 minor league system with a solid core that will take wins off these teams. 2022 and 2023 could be a bloodbath out west.